6
Jimmy The Hat
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 87
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-11-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 17/11/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 19/12/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 19/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |