1

The Minkster

7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 94

Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 29/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 95 · 1m110y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/07/2025 · OR 95 par29/07C5OR 95C6 @ Ellis Park 18/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 95 · 1m2f Fm 122 · beat its mark18/08/2025 · OR 95 parC5 @ Keeneland 18/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 98 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 98 par18/10C5OR 98C6 @ Churchill Downs 30/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 102 · 1m1f 121 · below its mark30/11/2025 · OR 102 parC6 @ Turfway Park 21/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 99 · 1m2f Fas 124 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 99 par21/02C6OR 99C8 @ Churchill Downs 10/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 99 · 1m1f Fm 118 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 99 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 03/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 96 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 96 par3/06C6OR 96C6 @ Colonial Downs 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 97 · 5f110y Gd 122 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 97 parC6 @ Kentucky Downs 09/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 102 · 7f Fm 121 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 102 par9/09C6OR 102projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Kentucky Downs?8th8th0
2026-06-25Colonial Downs?1st1st0
2026-06-03Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2026-05-10Churchill Downs?5th7th−2
2026-02-21Turfway Park?12th12th0
2025-11-30Churchill Downs?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0730/113/069/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/07/20257th10/147%45%-0.02
18/08/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
18/10/202510th25/10%0%0.00
30/11/202510th16/116%18%+0.02
21/02/202612th25/10%0%0.00
10/05/20265th20/10%60%+0.60
03/06/20264th7/163%40%-0.23
25/06/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
09/09/20268th25/10%30%+0.30