Don't Tell Kelly
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 91
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 29% | -0.64 |
| 21/12/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 90% | -0.02 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 4/5 | 96% | 25% | -0.71 |