2
Little Martha
5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 86
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
72%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength93%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 21/03/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 03/04/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 14% | -0.75 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |