4
Inspire Courage
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 87
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 10/01/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 14/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |