3
Jill Jitterbug
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 99
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2026-08-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-03-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 17/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 19/09/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |