IvyArcIvyArc
6

Wherever We Are

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 82

Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

76%

Place Prob

50%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 01/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 80 · 1m70y Fas 120 · below its mark01/10/2025 · OR 80 par1/10C8OR 80C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 20/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 83 · 1m70y 120 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 83 parC5 @ Penn National 29/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/11/2025 · OR 86 par29/11C5OR 86C5 @ Penn National 11/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 89 · 1m110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/12/2025 · OR 89 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 26/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 67 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 67 par26/05C5OR 67C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 17/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 68 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 68 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 71 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 71 par3/07C5OR 71C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 78 · 6f 123 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 78 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 6f110y 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 79 par14/08C5OR 79projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Presque Isle Downs?1st0th+1
2026-07-29Presque Isle Downs?1st3rd−2
2026-07-03Presque Isle Downs?7th6th+1
2026-06-17Presque Isle Downs?2nd1st+1
2026-05-26Presque Isle Downs?3rd2nd+1
2025-12-11Penn National?6th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1011/123/0714/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength63%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/10/20254th9/153%50%-0.03
20/10/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
29/11/20254th10/147%67%+0.19
11/12/20256th4/179%0%-0.79
26/05/20263rd14/126%67%+0.40
17/06/20262nd5/493%80%-0.13
03/07/20267th4/179%0%-0.79
29/07/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
14/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16