4
Alexander K
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 61
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 15/02/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 15/09/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |