2
Grab The Spark
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 76
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 64% | -0.07 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |