Race For Cover

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 76

Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

93%

Place Prob

73%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▬

Strength3%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C8.1

Today:

Class gap: -0.6

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-14	Presque Isle Downs	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-08-26	Presque Isle Downs	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-10	Presque Isle Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-07-29	Presque Isle Downs	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-02-26	Turfway Park	?	8th	9th	−1	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick

Trend▼

Strength64%

Delivery trend -11.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/02/2026	8th	33/1	0%	30%	+0.30
29/07/2026	6th	20/1	0%	17%	+0.17
10/08/2026	1st	13/2	66%	100%	+0.34
26/08/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	88%	+0.14
14/09/2026	4th	9/4	88%	63%	-0.26