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Alibey

4yo Filly · 11-12 · OR 105

Sedgefield · Happy 96th Birthday John Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 178y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained reward for her consistency when getting off the mark in a weakly-contested mares maiden at Fakenham (2m) in May. Probably needed the run (after 3 months off) when well held back on the level at Chester 18 days ago but is 7 lb higher than when last seen in a handicap over hurdles.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 11/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 72 · 1m2f219y Sta 135 · below its mark11/02/2026 · OR 72 par11/025OR 724 @ Catterick 04/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m7f156y Goo 148 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Huntingdon 11/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 1m7f171y Goo 143 · HIGHER CLASS11/0344 @ Stratford 28/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 2m70y Goo 146 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Plumpton 19/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 97 · 1m7f195y Gd 159 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 97 par19/045OR 975 @ Huntingdon 19/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 98 · 1m7f171y Goo 160 · below its mark19/05/2026 · OR 98 par5 @ Plumpton 26/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 98 · 1m7f195y Goo 158 · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 98 par26/055OR 984 @ Fakenham 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 102 · 2m3y Goo 152 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 102 par5 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 69 · 1m7f196y Goo 142 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 69 par11/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester56th6th0
2026-05-31Fakenham41st0th+1
2026-05-26Plumpton52nd2nd0
2026-05-19Huntingdon52nd2nd0
2026-04-19Plumpton52nd2nd0
2026-03-28Stratford44th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0228/0326/0511/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength95%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/02/20268th16/116%22%+0.06
04/03/20265th16/116%43%+0.27
11/03/20265th125/10%71%+0.71
28/03/20264th11/271%70%-0.01
19/04/20262nd33/10%89%+0.89
19/05/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
26/05/20262nd2/189%75%-0.14
31/05/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
11/09/20266th28/10%55%+0.55