6
Cawthorne Cracker
7yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 83
Sedgefield · Happy 96th Birthday John Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 178y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Kelso | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Bangor-on-Dee | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Cartmel | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Worcester | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Market Rasen | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Stratford | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 30/10/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 05/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 16/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |