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Spartan Times

5yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 105

Sedgefield · Happy 96th Birthday John Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 178y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

90%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shrugged off any element of rustiness with a battling display when making a winning handicap hurdle debut at Uttoxeter in May. Run possibly came too soon at Aintree 13 days later and remains well treated on recent Flat exploits.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Nottingham 23/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 74 · 1m6f Hvy 141 · beat its mark23/10/2025 · OR 74 par23/105OR 744 @ Bangor-on-Dee 12/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 2m145y Sft 161 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Uttoxeter 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 100 · 1m7f168y Gd 168 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 100 par2/055OR 1004 @ Aintree 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 105 · 2m209y Gd 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 105 par5 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 74 · 1m4f10y Goo 133 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 74 par28/055OR 745 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 72 · 1m4f63y Goo 139 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 72 · 1m4f63y Goo 132 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 72 par11/075OR 724 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 72 · 1m4f63y Sft 151 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Chester 19/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 1m6f87y Hvy 139 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 72 par19/095OR 72projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Chester52nd2nd0
2026-09-12Chester44th3rd+1
2026-07-11Chester56th6th0
2026-06-27Chester52nd2nd0
2026-05-28Ripon55th5th0
2026-05-15Aintree44th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/1015/0511/0719/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/10/20253rd9/276%71%-0.05
12/11/20257th9/153%25%-0.28
02/05/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
15/05/20264th5/287%67%-0.20
28/05/20265th2/189%0%-0.89
27/06/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
11/07/20266th15/261%29%-0.32
12/09/20264th13/266%70%+0.04
19/09/20262nd13/266%89%+0.23