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Jerseygeordie

3yo Gelding · 11-2

Sedgefield · Roxyfet Sports Lounge For Private Hire Juvenile Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 178y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed nothing in a handful of starts on all-weather for Jamie Osborne but made more impact tried over hurdles after 6 months off when third of 7 in a Newton Abbot juvenile (17f, good) 22 days ago. That form has since been franked by the pair that finished ahead of him, so has to be of interest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 22/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m1y Std 13322/1254 @ Wolverhampton 27/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 1m142y Std 13327/1243 @ Wolverhampton 06/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m142y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS6/0136 @ Southwell 24/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 45 · 1m4f14y Std 118 · beat its mark24/02/2026 · OR 45 par24/026OR 456 @ Wolverhampton 09/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 45 · 1m4f51y Std 121 · beat its mark09/03/2026 · OR 45 par9/036OR 454 @ Newton Abbot 07/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 2m167y Gd 1547/094projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Newton Abbot43rd3rd0
2026-03-09Wolverhampton67th9th−2
2026-02-24Southwell65th7th−2
2026-01-06Wolverhampton37th6th+1
2025-12-27Wolverhampton411th11th0
2025-12-22Lingfield59th10th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1227/126/0124/029/037/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.7% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/12/20259th33/10%27%+0.27
27/12/202511th200/10%9%+0.09
06/01/20267th150/10%0%0.00
24/02/20265th18/15%0%-0.05
09/03/20267th50/10%0%0.00
07/09/20263rd22/10%67%+0.67