4
Four Decades
5yo Mare · 10-9 · OR 89
Sedgefield · Paxtons No1 CaseIH Dealer Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 5f 28y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Worcester | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Market Rasen | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Fakenham | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Catterick | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-02 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 3-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 44% | +0.39 |
| 27/11/2025 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 17/01/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 02/02/2026 | 8th | 250/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 04/03/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |
| 06/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/08/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |