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Passengerontheship

7yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 108

Sedgefield · Paxtons No1 CaseIH Dealer Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 5f 28y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/5

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

84%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Brought up a quick-fire 5-timer in May/June (4 wins at Hexham). Got back on track after a couple of lesser efforts when second of 3 in 3m handicap at Warwick last week, though made quite hard work of things.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 31/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 89 · 2m4f19y Goo 160 · below its mark31/03/2026 · OR 89 par31/035OR 895 @ Hexham 19/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 82 · 2m4f15y Goo 151 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 82 par5 @ Hexham 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 88 · 2m4f15y Gd 152 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 88 par6/065OR 885 @ Hexham 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 92 · 3m41y Gd 160 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 92 par4 @ Hexham 21/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 98 · 2m4f15y Gd 156 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 98 par21/064OR 984 @ Cartmel 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 98 · 2m5f34y Gd 163 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 98 par4 @ Cartmel 18/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 110 · 2m5f34y Gd 161 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 110 par18/074OR 1103 @ Cartmel 31/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 110 · 2m5f34y Goo 153 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 110 par4 @ Warwick 22/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 108 · 3m Goo 156 · below its mark22/09/2026 · OR 108 par22/094OR 108projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Warwick42nd2nd0
2026-08-31Cartmel37th6th+1
2026-07-18Cartmel45th5th0
2026-06-26Cartmel41st1st0
2026-06-21Hexham41st1st0
2026-06-13Hexham51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0313/0618/0722/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -7.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/03/20266th10/382%44%-0.38
19/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
06/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
13/06/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
21/06/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
26/06/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
18/07/20265th6/492%20%-0.72
31/08/20267th13/266%0%-0.66
22/09/20262nd11/893%50%-0.43