Tanking Along
7yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 106
Sedgefield · Paxtons No1 CaseIH Dealer Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 5f 28y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Cartmel | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Perth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Kelso | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Ayr | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Carlisle | 2 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-03-10 | Sedgefield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/12/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 10/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 22/03/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |