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Thank You Blue

9yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 105

Sedgefield · Paxtons No1 CaseIH Dealer Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 5f 28y

#2

Rank

Odds

13/8

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Completed a quick-fire hat-trick over hurdles at Ludlow in February. Not the most fluent jumper over fences but again ran well when beaten only a length in 8-runner handicap here in August. Seemed not to stay the much longer trip on most recent outing and will benefit from this return to shorter.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Sedgefield 04/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 100 · 2m3f188y Goo 168 · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 100 par4/025OR 1005 @ Sedgefield 19/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 105 · 2m3f188y Sft 168 · beat its mark19/02/2026 · OR 105 par5 @ Ludlow 26/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 105 · 1m7f169y Goo 175 · beat its mark26/02/2026 · OR 105 par26/025OR 1054 @ Newcastle 11/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 119 · 2m190y Gd 167 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 119 par4 @ Southwell 09/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 104 · 2m4f88y Goo 163 · below its mark09/06/2026 · OR 104 par9/064OR 1045 @ Cartmel 26/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 100 · 2m5f34y Gd 168 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 100 par5 @ Worcester 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 102 · 2m4f Goo 168 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 102 par16/075OR 1025 @ Sedgefield 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 102 · 2m3f65y Goo 165 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 102 par4 @ Sedgefield 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 105 · 3m2f59y Goo 160 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 105 par9/094OR 105projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Sedgefield42nd2nd0
2026-08-28Sedgefield52nd3rd−1
2026-07-16Worcester52nd3rd−1
2026-06-26Cartmel53rd4th−1
2026-06-09Southwell44th4th0
2026-04-17Exeter40

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0211/0416/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength60%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/02/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
19/02/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
26/02/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
11/04/20265th6/168%20%-0.48
09/06/20264th7/163%0%-0.63
26/06/20263rd17/255%67%+0.11
16/07/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
28/08/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03
09/09/20262nd7/491%50%-0.41