Breaking Ground
5yo Mare · 10-3 · OR 74
Sedgefield · Sedgefield Racecourse For Outdoor Events Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 188y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 7.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Sedgefield | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Perth | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Perth | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Perth | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Perth | 5 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Musselburgh | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/08/2025 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 20/03/2026 | 5th | 300/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 23/04/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 14/05/2026 | 11th | 250/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 02/07/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |