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6

Hijo De La Luna

6yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 86

Sedgefield · Sedgefield Racecourse For Outdoor Events Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 188y

#6

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed he still has something to offer when third of 8 in handicap hurdle at Kelso (2¼m, good) 13 days ago. Recent form sound and must enter the reckoning.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 25/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 50 · 1m2f Std 135 · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 50 par25/036OR 505 @ Market Rasen 05/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 93 · 2m125y Goo 163 · below its mark05/04/2026 · OR 93 par6 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 50 · 1m4f15y Goo 131 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 50 par4/066OR 506 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 49 · 1m1f207y Goo 129 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 49 · 1m5f218y Gd 121 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 49 par20/066OR 496 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 48 · 1m3f39y Goo 130 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 47 · 1m1f170y Goo 127 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 47 par15/086OR 475 @ Sedgefield 28/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 88 · 2m178y Goo 160 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 88 par5 @ Kelso 16/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 86 · 2m2f25y Goo 155 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 86 par16/095OR 86projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Kelso53rd3rd0
2026-08-28Sedgefield54th4th0
2026-08-15Ripon68th9th−1
2026-07-09Carlisle63rd4th−1
2026-06-20Redcar66th7th−1
2026-06-16Beverley64th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0316/0615/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/03/20268th11/142%22%-0.20
05/04/20265th40/10%50%+0.50
04/06/20264th12/137%70%+0.33
16/06/20264th10/147%67%+0.19
20/06/20266th10/382%17%-0.66
09/07/20263rd11/142%60%+0.18
15/08/20268th25/10%42%+0.42
28/08/20264th16/116%67%+0.51
16/09/20263rd11/142%71%+0.29