7
Lillistar
6yo Mare · 10-7 · OR 78
Sedgefield · Sedgefield Racecourse For Outdoor Events Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 188y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Sedgefield | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Catterick | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Redcar | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Catterick | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Pontefract | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pontefract | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 11/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 05/04/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 56% | -0.27 |
| 21/04/2026 | 6th | 18/5 | 81% | 17% | -0.64 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |