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Sovereignlightcafe

5yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 97

Sedgefield · Sedgefield Racecourse For Outdoor Events Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 188y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A fair and lightly-raced maiden on Flat in first half of 2024. Returned from 17 months off and displayed aptitude for hurdling when third of 9 here (16.8f) here last December but well held at Wetherby 3 weeks later and again offered little when remote third at Bangor 25 days ago. Makes handicap bow.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 05/01/2024 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 1m13y Std 1335/0155 @ Nottingham 10/05/2024 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m75y Goo 13310/0555 @ Thirsk 07/06/2024 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f218y Goo 1317/0656 @ Thirsk 03/07/2024 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 64 · 1m6f Goo 134 · beat its mark03/07/2024 · OR 64 par3/076OR 644 @ Sedgefield 05/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 2m178y Sft 158 · HIGHER CLASS5/1244 @ Wetherby 27/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 2m Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS27/1244 @ Bangor-on-Dee 04/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 2m3f123y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS4/094projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Bangor-on-Dee43rd2nd+1
2025-12-27Wetherby48th7th+1
2025-12-05Sedgefield43rd2nd+1
2024-07-03Thirsk64th5th−1
2024-06-07Thirsk58th8th0
2024-05-10Nottingham58th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/013/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength73%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/01/20245th125/10%64%+0.64
10/05/20248th100/10%30%+0.30
07/06/20248th50/10%13%+0.13
03/07/20244th22/10%40%+0.40
05/12/20253rd40/10%75%+0.75
27/12/20258th10/147%30%-0.17
04/09/20263rd20/10%50%+0.50