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Tracker Issue

4yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 97

Sedgefield · Sedgefield Racecourse For Outdoor Events Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 188y

#7

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Regressive maiden on the Flat who made more impact than previously over hurdles when ¾-length second in a C&D novice in August. However, struggled in his first handicap in this sphere back over C&D since, an SP of 28/1 also speaking of low expectations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 09/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m4f98y Std 130 · below its mark09/12/2025 · OR 56 par9/126OR 566 @ Newcastle 22/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 56 · 1m4f98y Std 131 · below its mark22/01/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Catterick 11/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 54 · 1m4f13y Gd 134 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 54 par11/056OR 546 @ Catterick 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 51 · 1m7f189y GF 125 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 50 · 1m5f26y Sft 135 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 50 par19/066OR 504 @ Uttoxeter 24/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 1m7f168y Gd 152 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Perth 15/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 2m47y Gd 155 · HIGHER CLASS15/0844 @ Sedgefield 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 2m3f188y Goo 150 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Sedgefield 14/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 100 · 2m3f188y Goo 165 · below its mark14/09/2026 · OR 100 par14/095OR 100projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Sedgefield59th9th0
2026-08-28Sedgefield42nd1st+1
2026-08-15Perth46th5th+1
2026-07-24Uttoxeter46th5th+1
2026-06-19Ayr69th10th−1
2026-05-30Catterick64th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/1230/0515/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength38%

Delivery trend +6.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/12/202512th9/153%0%-0.53
22/01/202610th28/10%0%0.00
11/05/202614th28/10%0%0.00
30/05/20264th33/10%25%+0.25
19/06/20269th18/15%0%-0.05
24/07/20266th125/10%58%+0.58
15/08/20266th18/15%17%+0.11
28/08/20262nd13/266%86%+0.20
14/09/20269th28/10%11%+0.11