3
Vanilla Dancer
7yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 97
Sedgefield · Sedgefield Racecourse For Outdoor Events Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 188y
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Kelso | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Kelso | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Kelso | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Carlisle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-09 | Catterick | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Doncaster | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength23%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 06/11/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 44% | -0.29 |
| 16/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 90% | +0.48 |
| 09/02/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 08/03/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 06/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 24/05/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 27% | -0.15 |