3
Lady Kara
5yo Mare · 11-9 · OR 105
Sedgefield · Premier Road Markings Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 77y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
93%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Stratford | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-12 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Hereford | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |