4
Mary
7yo Mare · 11-6 · OR 102
Sedgefield · Premier Road Markings Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 77y
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Stratford | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Bangor-on-Dee | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-07 | Huntingdon | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Stratford | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Taunton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength95%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2025 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.02 |
| 31/05/2025 | 3rd | 85/40 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 20/07/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 27/11/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 56% | +0.50 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |