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Close House

5yo Gelding · 11-2

Sedgefield · Fairlight Studios Cafe At Sedgefield Racecourse Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) · 2m 178y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

€11,500 3-y-o, Wings of Eagles gelding who made an encouraging start to his career when third of 9 in heavy-ground bumper at Ayr (2m) on sole outing for A. Slattery in April. That is a traditionally a strong race and he sets a clear standard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ayr 18/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 2m Hvy 157 · HIGHER CLASS18/042
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-18Ayr23rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-6 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 4. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/04/20263rd20/10%75%+0.75