7
Gapper
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 11/08/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |