Party Pooper
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/03/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |