5
Quiet Amigo
8yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 55
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 09/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 24/06/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 07/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |