Sammy And Shorty
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 82
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-04-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-03-11 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-02-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-01-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -10.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2024 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 16/12/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 09/01/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 24/01/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 10/02/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/03/2025 | 4th | 5/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 01/04/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 24/06/2025 | 9th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |