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7

Cowgirlsluvme

3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 61

Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength92%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 12/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 34 · 5f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 34 par12/09C6OR 34C5 @ Mahoning Valley 25/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 41 · 1m110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 41 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 18/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 42 · 6f Slo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/12/2025 · OR 42 par18/12C5OR 42C5 @ Mahoning Valley 05/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 52 · 1m Slo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/02/2026 · OR 52 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 03/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 50 · 1m 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/03/2026 · OR 50 par3/03C5OR 50C5 @ Mahoning Valley 25/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 57 · 1m Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 57 parC8 @ Thistledown 21/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 64 · 6f 117 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 64 par21/04C8OR 64C5 @ Thistledown 20/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 65 · 1m1f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 65 parC8 @ Thistledown 18/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 65 · 6f 115 · below its mark18/08/2026 · OR 65 par18/08C8OR 65projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-18Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-06-20Thistledown?8th4th+3
2026-04-21Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-03-25Mahoning Valley?2nd-1th+3
2026-03-03Mahoning Valley?1st-2th+3
2026-02-05Mahoning Valley?5th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/095/0221/0418/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength64%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/09/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
25/10/202510th40/10%10%+0.10
18/12/20257th20/10%40%+0.40
05/02/20265th4/179%43%-0.36
03/03/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
25/03/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
21/04/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
20/06/20268th33/10%13%+0.13
18/08/20264th5/174%40%-0.34