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3

Jac's Doe Maker

3yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 66

Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength76%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 06/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS6/08C6C5 @ Mahoning Valley 25/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 64 · 1m110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 64 par25/10C5OR 64C5 @ Mahoning Valley 18/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 49 · 6f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/12/2025 · OR 49 par18/12C5OR 49C8 @ Thistledown 26/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 62 · 5f110y Fas 115 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 62 par26/08C8OR 62C5 @ Thistledown 17/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 65 · 1m 115 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/09/2026 · OR 65 par17/09C5OR 65projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Thistledown?6th3rd+3
2026-08-26Thistledown?1st1st0
2025-12-18Mahoning Valley?2nd-2th+3
2025-10-25Mahoning Valley?11th7th+3
2025-08-06Thistledown?1st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0825/1018/1226/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%

Delivery trend -22.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/08/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
25/10/202511th14/126%0%-0.26
18/12/20252nd9/488%90%+0.02
26/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
17/09/20266th15/261%0%-0.61