4
Run Vinicius
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 60
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 23/04/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 13/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |