5
Sadie's Ghost
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength81%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |