4
Faithful Solution
7yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 43
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 08/07/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 11/08/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 28/08/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 16/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 06/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 14/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |