1
Nancyfromtheblock
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 47
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength94%
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 02/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 23/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 10/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 25/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/09/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |