Seyval Blanc
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 33
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 22/09/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 15/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 01/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 13/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |