6
Special Collette
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 28
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength68%
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 26/02/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 26/03/2026 | 6th | 6/5 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 08/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 20/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |