5
Victoria Command
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 49
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 11/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 28/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |