1
Balki Bartokomous
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 64
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |