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4

Little Shance

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 61

Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/5

Win Prob

80%

Place Prob

62%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength88%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Thistledown 22/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 74 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/04/2025 · OR 74 par22/04C5OR 74C5 @ Thistledown 29/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/05/2025 · OR 79 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 02/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 71 · 6f Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/01/2026 · OR 71 par2/01C5OR 71C5 @ Mahoning Valley 09/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 61 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/04/2026 · OR 61 parC5 @ Thistledown 21/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 67 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 67 par21/04C5OR 67C5 @ Thistledown 11/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 69 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 69 parC5 @ Thistledown 06/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 68 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 68 par6/07C5OR 68C5 @ Thistledown 12/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 65 · 5f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 65 parC8 @ Thistledown 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 63 · 5f110y Fas 119 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 63 par9/09C8OR 63projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-08-12Thistledown?4th1st+3
2026-07-06Thistledown?5th2nd+3
2026-05-11Thistledown?2nd-1th+3
2026-04-21Thistledown?2nd-1th+3
2026-04-09Mahoning Valley?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/049/046/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/04/20252nd2/189%88%-0.02
29/05/20254th13/266%50%-0.16
02/01/20265th5/493%0%-0.93
09/04/20266th25/10%17%+0.17
21/04/20262nd7/163%83%+0.20
11/05/20262nd3/184%83%-0.01
06/07/20265th9/276%20%-0.56
12/08/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
09/09/20261st6/492%100%+0.08