5
Ol' Nelson
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 59
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength43%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 23/02/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 08/09/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |