6
Take Dictation
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 54
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 26/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 08/09/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |