2
Chica Chula
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 64
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 09/01/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 23/01/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 29/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |