Compute This
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/12/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 24/02/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |