3
Nublada
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 83
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength65%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +2.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-11-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-10-10 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2024-11-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength86%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2024 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 12/08/2024 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 04/11/2024 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 25/11/2024 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 03/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 12/11/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |