Pretty Patty
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
84%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 27/05/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 16/06/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 08/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 11/08/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |