Sushi Q
8yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 08/07/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 11/08/2025 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 20% | -0.73 |
| 11/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |