6
The Miracle Kiut
6yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength70%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 60% | -0.36 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/11 | 98% | 75% | -0.23 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |